Climate Change is Changing the Agricultural Landscape. Are We Ready?
Photo by Yana Petkova on Unsplash.com
By: Eleanor Black
Climate change is increasing in the status quo, 2024 marked the warmest year on record, reaching 1.55℃ above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization). This marks the first year since breaching the 1.5℃ benchmark set during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. While it’s possible to reverse this breach, as the 1.5℃ benchmark is meant to represent long term averages in global temperatures, it should still be highly concerning as passing the warming benchmark increases the severity of climate change associated affects and hazards while reducing the possibility of reversibility. The current demands of the climate crisis require dramatic action as the world is headed to 2.5°C by the end of the century, calling for a 40% reduction in emissions and carbon sequestration to scale up by over 1,300 times by 2025 (Lei, 2024). Even in the most optimistic scenarios of carbon dioxide reduction it would take decades to reach the 1.5°C breaking point overshoot even if emissions reversed the current trend and held flat until 2030 (Peters, 2024).
Whether or not we manage to lower emissions enough to prevent further breaks of the 1.5 benchmark climate adaptations within the agricultural landscape are inevitable, and in most places already being felt. Across the globe, decreased crop biodiversity, infrequent and smaller crop yields and even less nutritionally dense crops are manifesting as a result of climate change.
By the end of the century, global crop yields are predicted to decrease by 11-25%, accounting for current adaptation strategies (Wing, De Cian, & Mistry, 2021), by midcentury (2050) climate change is expected to reduce global crop yields by 8% regardless of reductions to emissions (MacPherson, 2025). This is especially concerning as climate change’s attack on the agricultural landscape is not a single pronged issue-natural disasters, changing rain and temperature patterns, and the spread of pests and fungi due to changing climates are all current issues impacting the available crop yields that are only likely to be exacerbated within the future.
Natural disasters, worsened in frequency and severity by climate change, have major impacts on crop yields. From 2008 to 2018, billions of dollars from crop and livestock production were lost due to natural disasters in USD-30 billion was lost in sub-Saharan and North Africa, 29 billion lost in Latin America and the Caribbean, 8.7 billion was lost across the Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean, 49 billion was lost in Asia (FAO, 2021). In 2023 alone, major disasters and severe weather caused over 21 billion USD in crop losses across the United States (Munch, 2024).
In addition to natural disasters, changing weather patterns impact crop yields. As climate change affects the natural weather patterns of areas-whether through changes in rainfall (increased rainfall or drought), changes in overall average temperature, increased frequency of weather extremes, changes in growing periods-crop yields suffer. Heat waves, persistent droughts, downpours and prolonged rainfall all have severe impacts on crops-heavy rainfall reduced yields by 36%, drought by 13% (Matteo Cavallito, 2024). Climate changes’ effects on crop yields through changes in weather patterns are likely also underestimated as there’s insufficient research on the effect of microclimate changes and overall meteorological shifts (ie: average temperatures increasing) on crop yields.
Climate change has increased the potential environment of several living threats to crops.
Shifts in the meteorological trends of areas impacts the species of pests, weeds and fungal infections prevalent in the given area. Insects like locusts, naval orangeworms and aphids have increased in presence, harming crops as a result. Across 31 plant-eating species of insects, 41% showed responses expected to lead to increased pest damage, while only 4% had consistent reduced effects (Lehmann et al., 2020). Weeds have also changed under climate change, as climate change has contributed to their dispersal, increasing their potential landscape (Vilà et al., 2021). Fungal infections are especially susceptible to adapting to climate change as they reside within the first layer of soil, making them especially prone to early adaptations to climate change (Williams, Toda, Chiller, Brunkard, & Litvintseva, 2024). Several species of fungal infections have been observed to have expanded environments over recent decades, tied to changes in overall weather patterns to be more appealing to fungi species (CDC, 2024). Fungi species like La Roya, a fungal infection devastating coffee crops across Mexico and Central America at a shocking speed, was so severe it caused Mexico, Guatemala and Costa Rica to declare national emergencies over its presence (Foreman, 2015).
Aside from the decreased and inconsistent crop yields climate change has also caused decreased crop biodiversity and decreased nutritional value of crops. Just two degrees of warming have been associated with a potential 52% reduction in global crop diversity (Heikonen et al., 2025). Decreased crop biodiversity is critical as it further destabilizes the food chain and affects the general nutrient diversity that’s critical to maintaining an ideal gut microbiome. Climate change even affects the base nutrient quality of crops. Rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to reduced availability of zinc, iron, protein and key vitamins in several staple crops (Harvard University Center for the Environment, 2019).
Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is critical to prepare for the human impact associated with it. Undernutrition is a major cause of mortality and morbidity-especially within the global south where the impacts of climate change are already disproportionately felt. Knowledge of how and why climate change will be felt is the only way for us to prepare for the profound human impacts associated with it. It is fundamental that we strengthen not only our mitigation strategies, but prepare for adaptations to meet the social and scientific demands of climate change. While climate change is often relegated to the realm of STEM and potential far off impacts, it is critical to ground climate change in the real impacts felt by individuals. When we embrace the future of climate change, especially within agriculture, our understanding and strategies must be grounded in humanity. We are not prepared for climate change’s sweeping impacts on agriculture, but as we adapt we must do so with man in mind, acknowledging the disproportionate impacts of climate change on marginalized communities and prepare accordingly.
References
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